Higher ed market intelligence, refreshed weekly
HEDSI is a weekly view of higher-ed demand, combining leading indicators of student interest (search trends), intent (FAFSA), applications (Common App), and enrollment validation (IPEDS and NSC). This demand signal is paired with a structural demographic layer based on projected high school graduate trends from WICHE.
Market view
How to choose a view
Leading Signals
Earliest read on demand direction — higher sensitivity, more noise.
Best for: spotting turning points early. Expect lower confidence scores.
Balanced Market View
Default view. Blends speed and stability for weekly monitoring.
Best for: routine tracking and sharing with leadership.
Confirmed Trend
Steadiest, most defensible read — slower to react but higher confidence.
Best for: budget presentations and board-level reporting.
Signal weights · Balanced Market View
Google Trends
35%
FAFSA intent
35%
Common App
30%
Fast-moving
Seasonal
Confirming
HEDSI
23.7
Low
4-week change
-10.2
Softening vs 4 weeks ago
Alignment
Aligned
Demand versus enrollment validation
Confidence
80%
High
Structural trend
Mixed
Long-run demographic backdrop
Vs last year
-29.0
vs May 4, 2025 (52.7)
Softening Demand
Balanced Market View currently shows demand weakening relative to recent weeks. Enrollment validation is currently tagged as aligned, helping distinguish whether demand is moving ahead of or alongside reported enrollment outcomes.
Latest week
May 3, 2026
Generated May 9, 2026
Key insight
Demand is softening and trending downward. United States shows a relatively stable projected student pipeline.
This supports a measured outreach strategy: keep investment disciplined, monitor conversion performance closely, and use attribution from university campaign pages to defend spend with leadership.
Use downstream measurement and attribution to show how outreach spend contributes to real institutional outcomes, not just top-of-funnel activity.
Weekly trend
HEDSI time series
Current HEDSI
Previous year
How to read this view
The balanced market view currently reads 23.7 (Low) and is moving lower versus four weeks ago.
Enrollment validation is currently tagged as aligned, helping distinguish whether demand is moving ahead of or alongside reported outcomes.
Confidence is high, mainly reflecting which source inputs are available and how fresh they are in the latest week.
Source coverage in latest snapshot
Trends
FAFSA snapshot
FAFSA velocity
Common App
BLS grad labor market
NSC
IPEDS
Google Trends
Fast-moving search interest across higher-ed demand topics.
Latest reading
15.0
Updated this week
FAFSA Intent
National FAFSA completion momentum as an intent proxy.
Latest reading
4,541,170
Updated this week
FAFSA Velocity
YoY change in weekly FAFSA completion momentum.
Latest reading
-19.8%
Updated this week
Common App
Application-oriented signal with slower, steadier cadence.
Latest reading
100.3
Stale (8 weeks old)
NSC Enrollment
Enrollment validation used to compare demand versus realized outcomes.
Latest reading
+0.0%
Not current
Monitor closely — demand is softening
The 4-week trend is moving lower. This doesn't require immediate action, but it's a signal to review channel pacing and ensure your attribution is tight enough to defend current spend levels if the softening continues.
See it with your data
Model your campaign mix against current conditions
The live demo lets you test channel mixes, flight timing, and budget allocation — and see how attribution shifts as you adjust spend across this market environment.
Based on current conditions we're pre-loading the Efficient Scale mix — you can adjust from there.
Open Efficient Scale mix →Talk to us about your schoolStructural backdrop
Explore the long-run demographic backdrop for the U.S., a region, or a state. This does not change the national HEDSI signal above — it changes the structural context used to interpret where graduate pipelines are strengthening or shrinking.
Structural Pressure Index (SPI) summarizes the long-run graduate-pipeline outlook for each geography using WICHE projections.
United States
The structural backdrop for United States is stable. Projected graduates are +0.5% YoY and -1.1% on a 5-year CAGR basis. Relative to 2023, the projected graduate base is +2.3%.
Projected grads
3,846,581
May 30, 2021–May 3, 2026
1Y change
+0.5%
May 30, 2021–May 3, 2026
5Y growth trend
-1.1%
May 30, 2021–May 3, 2026
Vs 2023 baseline
+2.3%
May 30, 2021–May 3, 2026
How to read this
Stable means the long-run graduate pipeline in United States is largely stable relative to recent history.
Key comparisons
Structural Index: -0.13. Peak to 2041: -12.5%. Vs U.S.: 0.0%.
Structural rank and peers
See how the selected market compares with other U.S. regions on structural graduate-pipeline momentum.
United States
—
of 13 regions by structural index
Structural band: Stable
Structural Index -0.13 · 5Y CAGR -1.1%
Nearby peers
#1 West South Central
Structural Index 0.75
5Y CAGR -0.5% · Vs 2023 +5.1%
#2 South Atlantic
Structural Index 0.56
5Y CAGR -0.6% · Vs 2023 +5.5%
#3 South
Structural Index 0.56
5Y CAGR -0.7% · Vs 2023 +5.6%
#4 East South Central
Structural Index 0.19
5Y CAGR -1.1% · Vs 2023 +4.0%
#5 Mountain
Structural Index 0.15
5Y CAGR -0.7% · Vs 2023 +4.0%
Browse major and field search interest
This lens is intentionally narrower than HEDSI. It uses normalized Google Trends only, so each row should be read as relative search interest for a field rather than raw search volume or a full demand composite.
Biology
Biology, biochemistry, molecular biology, and life science pathways.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Business
Business, accounting, finance, and management programs.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Communications
Communications, media studies, journalism, and public relations.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Computer Science
Computer science, software engineering, data science, and computing.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Criminal Justice
Criminal justice, criminology, law enforcement, and forensic study.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Education
Education, teaching, special education, and teacher preparation.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Engineering
Mechanical, electrical, civil, chemical, and broader engineering pathways.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
English
English, literature, creative writing, and related humanities programs.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Health
Health science, nursing, public health, and healthcare administration.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
History
History, historical studies, and related social science/humanities programs.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Nursing
Nursing, BSN, RN-to-BSN, and nurse practitioner pathways.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Political Science
Political science, public policy, government, and public administration.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Psychology
Psychology, counseling, behavioral science, and related graduate intent.
Current level
—
1Y
Level: —
IPEDS supply
—
Annual completions
Share of mapped supply
YoY change unavailable
Latest published final release year shown when available.
4-week momentum
—
Field trend: —
Military demand, from market backdrop to school-level realization
This layer combines installation proximity, ACS veteran backdrop, and VA GI Bill history to show where military-connected demand is most likely to matter. It is useful for broad market planning and for institution-specific briefing.
Demand combines proximity to installations, the surrounding veteran backdrop, and school support signals. Yield shows realized GI Bill activity at the school. ACS means the American Community Survey, which we use here to estimate the veteran backdrop in the surrounding state.
Latest military update
—
Published with the weekly HEDSI bundle
Installations
—
Modeled nationally
Catchments
—
School-to-base matches
GI Bill schools
—
VA beneficiary history
Profiles
—
School-level outputs
Military demand index
Higher means stronger opportunity around the school from nearby installations, veteran backdrop, and support signals.
GI Bill yield index
Higher means more realized GI Bill activity at the school, which helps show where military-connected students are already showing up.
ACS veteran backdrop
ACS = American Community Survey. We use veteran share of adults as a state-level backdrop signal for the local military market.
Ranked by average military-connected demand index
Choose state
Select any state to see its military-connected footprint, not just the top three.
Choose school
No schools available for the selected state.
School spotlight
Select a school
Leave school blank to explore the state market first, or pick one institution for a drill-down.
Leave school blank to explore the state market first, or pick one institution for a drill-down.
Top schools in this state
Choose a school to open the full drill-down. Leave it on All schools to compare the state’s top institutions.
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